VIEWPOINT | The real relationship between Trump-style tariffs and economic growth

Column by Veronique de Rugy

In recent years, there has been a resurgence of the idea that protective tariffs can restore America’s economic greatness, based on the interpretation that they fueled our growth in the 19th century and can do so again in the 21st century. This claim isn’t just wrong; it’s dangerous.

Take recent comments by the conservative pundit Oren Cass, who said “the way America went from colonial backwater to this globe-spanning industrial colossus was not free markets and free trade. It was aggressive protection of our domestic market.” Former President Donald Trump echoes similar ideas in his many pronouncements about why, if he’s reelected, tariffs will be a big and important tool to revitalize America's economy.

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At a superficial level, it’s easy to see how someone could think tariffs promote domestic growth. As the Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome rightly notes, “the issue (is) a classic case of correlation versus causation: Because tariffs were high during a period of rapid American growth and industrialization, so the argument goes, the former caused the latter.”

Yet correlation isn’t causation. Tariffs weren’t the cause of American prosperity. Not even close.

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